Market Opportunity Analysis
Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.
Use this skill when
●Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows
●Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis
Do not use this skill when
●The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis
●You need a different domain or tool outside this scope
Instructions
●Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
●Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
●Provide actionable steps and verification.
●If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.
What This Command Does
This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:
1.Define the target market and customer segments
2.Gather relevant market data
3.Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology
4.Validate with top-down analysis
5.Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters
6.Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)
7.Present findings in a formatted report
Instructions for Claude
When this command is invoked, follow these steps:
Step 1: Gather Context
Ask the user for essential information:
●Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved?
●Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)
●Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)
●Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)
●Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)
Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill
The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:
●Bottom-up calculation frameworks
●Top-down validation approaches
●Industry-specific templates
●Data source recommendations
Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis
For B2B/SaaS:
1.Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)
2.Estimate number of companies in each segment
3.Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment
4.Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)
For Consumer/Marketplace:
1.Define target user demographics
2.Estimate total addressable users
3.Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)
4.Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency
For Transactions/E-commerce:
1.Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)
2.Determine take rate or margin
3.Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate
Step 4: Gather Market Data
Use available tools to research:
●WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data
●Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates
●Document assumptions clearly
Recommended data sources (from skill):
●Government data (Census, BLS)
●Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)
●Public company filings (10-K reports)
●Trade associations
●Academic research
Step 5: Top-Down Validation
Validate bottom-up calculation:
1.Find total market category size from research
2.Apply geographic filters
3.Apply segment/product filters
4.Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)
If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.
Step 6: Calculate SAM
Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM:
●Geographic: Regions actually serviceable
●Product Capability: Features needed to serve
●Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt
●Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert
Formula:
SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %
Step 7: Estimate SOM
Calculate realistic obtainable market share:
Conservative Approach (Recommended):
●Year 3: 2-3% of SAM
●Year 5: 4-6% of SAM
Consider:
●Competitive intensity
●Available resources (funding, team)
●Go-to-market effectiveness
●Differentiation strength
Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report
Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:
Section 1: Executive Summary
●Market opportunity in one paragraph
●TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers
Section 2: Market Definition
●Problem being solved
●Target customer profile
●Geographic scope
●Time horizon
Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis
●Customer segment breakdown
●Segment sizing with sources
●TAM calculation with formula
●Assumptions documented
Section 4: Top-Down Validation
●Industry category and size
●Filter application
●Validated TAM
●Comparison to bottom-up
Section 5: SAM Calculation
●Filters applied with rationale
●SAM formula and result
●Segment-level breakdown
Section 6: SOM Projection
●Market share assumptions
●Year 3 and Year 5 estimates
●Customer count implications
●Revenue projections
Section 7: Market Growth
●Industry growth rate (CAGR)
●Key growth drivers
●5-year market evolution
Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks
●Public company comparisons
●Customer count validation
●Competitive context
Section 9: Investment Thesis
●Market opportunity assessment
●Key positives and risks
●Venture-scale potential
●Next steps
Step 9: Save Report
Offer to save the report as a markdown file:
●Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md
●Use Write tool to create file
●Confirm file location with user
Tips for Best Results
Do:
●Start with bottom-up (most credible)
●Always triangulate with top-down
●Cite all data sources
●Document every assumption
●Be conservative on SOM
●Compare to public company benchmarks
●Explain any data gaps or limitations
Don't:
●Rely solely on top-down
●Cherry-pick optimistic data
●Claim >10% SOM without strong justification
●Mix methodologies inappropriately
●Ignore competitive context
●Skip validation steps
Example Usage
User: /market-opportunity
Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.
What product or service are you analyzing?
→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"
Who are your target customers?
→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"
What's your pricing model?
→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"
[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]
Integration with Other Commands
This command pairs well with:
●/financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model
●/business-case - Include market sizing in business case
Notes
●Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis
●Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations
●Update annually as market evolves
●Conservative estimates build credibility with investors